Third UAEU-Oxford University Lecture Series
Under the Patronage and in the presence of His Highness Sheikh Nahayan Mabarak Al Nahayan, Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research and Chancellor of the United Arab Emirates University, the UAEU hosted the third Oxford University Lecture Series on Sunday 25 September 2011 in Abu Dhabi. Also in attendance were H.E. Dr. Abdullah Saad Al Khanbashi, the Vice Chancellor of the UAEU, H.E. Dr. Mugheer Khamis Al Khaili, the Director General of ADEC, H.E. Saif Mohamed al Hajeri, CEO of Tawazun, and other dignitaries and guests.
The Lecture was presented by Professor Eamonn Molloy, Tutorial Fellow in Management Studies at the University of Oxford and Research Director at the BT Centre for Major Programme Management at the Said Business School who is internationally recognized for his research that develops innovative approaches to understanding complex organization design, particularly the strategic dynamics of project based organizations.
The Lecture was titled “Building Tomorrow’s World: The Challenge of Mega-Projects”, in which Professor Molloy explained why mega-projects frequently go so badly wrong in terms of cost, schedule and benefits forecasts and proposed a solution. In particular, he showed how rethinking mega-projects as complex, temporary organizations, rather than simple project processes can help governments, policy-makers and business to design and manage mega-projects more effectively, and deliver solutions to the challenges of tomorrow’s world.
Tomorrow’s world faces tremendous challenges on an unprecedented global scale. Population growth, food and energy security, the need for infrastructure and basic services, employment, access to education and health services, poverty alleviation, climate change, and the global financial crises present policy makers and business leaders with difficult decisions and critical trade-offs.
Increasingly, the strategic response to these big challenges is ‘big solutions’ delivered through ‘mega- projects’, leading to what The Economist recently called ‘The biggest investment boom in history.’ The Cohen and Steers Global Infrastructure Report estimates that US$ 40 trillion will be spent on infrastructure projects globally between 2005 and 2030. The economic, social, environmental, and cultural ambitions of governments, businesses and the public now hinges on the successful delivery of multi-billion dollar megaprojects in energy, transport, ICT, healthcare, education, aerospace and defense.
However, there is a problem. Mega-projects typically suffer phenomenal cost overruns, schedule delay, and benefit shortfalls. Worryingly, historic data shows that mega-project performance is getting worse over time, and the problem is getting bigger because mega-projects are getting bigger. The implications are substantial. The physical and economic scale of today’s’ megaprojects is such that whole nations economies may be affected in both medium and long term by the success or failure of just a single mega-project.
This topic was delved into further in the Seminar titled “White Elephants and Black Swans: Optimism Bias in Mega-Projects” on Monday 26 September 2011 at the UAE University campus in Al Ain. In this presentation to students, faculty and staff Professor Malloy showed how mega-project were more likely than not to consistently exceed costs. Ironically these cost overruns appeared to be consistent over a period of 70 years raising the question of why it is that this is still the case. In addition it appeared that the only way to obtain funding of these mega-projects was to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits leading to these current overruns.
In suggesting solutions to this challenge, Professor Malloy suggested: “we need to develop better forecast models, better data, better trained forecasters, improved and simple reality checks at the planning stage, and improved levels of accountability at the political and economic levels”.
This third opportunity to partner with Oxford University follows the success of the previous Lectures in March and May 2011 and affirms the leadership role that the UAEU plays in research, supporting the transformation of the UAE into a knowledge based economy to the benefit of the whole Nation.
Further links and resources
- Lecture Presentation (PDF file, 2mb)
- Seminar Presentation (PDF, 3mb)
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