External Projects

Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Spread Dynamics in Abu Dhabi

Since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, Emirates Center for Mobility Research (ECMR) has been working closely with the Department of Health (DoH) in Abu Dhabi to develop mathematical models to forecast the health care capacity needed to contain COVID19. These models are estimating the total number of infections over the course of the outbreak and total acute and ICU hospital beds needed.

Unlike all the exiting mathematical models of COVID19 forecasting, the team customized their model to the demographic nature of UAE in general and Abu Dhabi in particular, which makes their prediction of very high accuracy. The models has also been used by DoH to evaluate the impact of the currently adopted control measures in reducing the disease burden.

The team is further extending the model to include mobility analyses to quantify disease spread dynamics to advice on best containment strategies that further flattens the curve.

Further scenarios are being developed based on standardized approaches for epidemiological control, protection and isolation of infected populace, zonal lockdown of high-density areas with inflated contact rates, such as industrial and labour accommodation areas. The model aims to provide policymakers with additional tools for optimising spread mitigation and developing exit strategies.

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Contributors: Dr Hamad Al Jassmi (Director, ECMR), Dr Umair Hasan (Post-Doctoral Fellow, ECMR), Dr Abdessamad Tridane (Associate Professor, Department of Mathematical Sciences), and Eng. Mohammad Sherif (Software Engineer, ECMR)